Electric bus market seen reaching $68.11B by 2031

Mordor Intelligence projects the electric bus market will more than double by 2031, driven by zero-emission transit policies, fleet electrification, and falling battery costs. The forecast also highlights infrastructure bottlenecks that could slow deployment even as cities and transit agencies accelerate adoption.

Why it matters: - Electric buses are moving from niche purchases to a core part of public transit decarbonization plans. - The market’s growth reflects tighter emissions rules, government procurement support, and lower battery costs. - Transit operators still face practical barriers, including charging access, depot upgrades, and grid delays.

What happened: - Mordor Intelligence projects the global electric bus market will rise from $28.77 billion in 2026 to $68.11 billion by 2031. - The forecast implies an 18.81% compound annual growth rate over the period. - The report ties the expansion to low-emission transportation goals and government-backed fleet electrification programs. - The report was released from Hyderabad, Telangana, India, on Oct. 29, 2026.

The details: - Stricter environmental regulations are pushing transport operators to replace diesel buses with electric models. - Declining battery costs are improving the economics of electric fleets. - Better energy efficiency is also strengthening the business case for adoption. - Limited charging infrastructure remains a major constraint. - Depot electrification can require substantial upfront spending. - Grid connection delays are also slowing deployments. - Operators are responding with phased rollouts and flexible financing arrangements. - Major-city electric vehicle mandates are accelerating bus replacement timelines. - The transition requires depot upgrades, charging infrastructure, and staff training. - Smaller operators may struggle to absorb those costs. - Coordinated electrification efforts across Asian cities are adding pressure on manufacturers and supply chains. - Battery prices have fallen below $85 per kWh, helped by large-scale production in Asia. - Sodium-ion batteries could create additional cost savings. - Used batteries are finding new uses in energy storage. - Those trends could improve resale values and support more flexible financing for buyers. - In March 2026, India’s Ministry of Heavy Industries reported progress under the PM-eBus Sewa Scheme, with tenders concluded for 6,228 buses and letters of award issued for 4,720 buses as of Feb. 28, 2026. - The ministry also outlined procurement activity under the PM E-DRIVE scheme. - In February 2026, SWITCH Mobility deployed 272 electric buses in Delhi under a 950-bus contract. - The Delhi fleet included low-floor buses with accessibility features and fire detection systems. - The report breaks the market down by propulsion, application, battery chemistry, length, motor architecture, motor power, range, and end use. - The report is available in Japanese, French, German, Spanish, and Portuguese through Mordor Intelligence.

Between the lines: - Europe’s momentum is being supported by EU rules, incentives, and stricter limits on diesel vehicles in major cities. - Local battery manufacturing is helping build more resilient supply chains in the region. - Asia-Pacific leads adoption because of China’s large electric bus fleet and India’s incentive-driven public transport push. - Japan and South Korea are also expanding cleaner transit options through hydrogen bus investment. - The market outlook suggests growth will depend as much on infrastructure and procurement capacity as on vehicle technology.

What's next: - More city transit systems are likely to move toward staged fleet replacement rather than full conversions at once. - Procurement programs in India and other markets will remain a key demand driver. - Charging and grid buildout will determine how fast operators can scale electric bus fleets. - Battery cost trends and new chemistries may further improve economics over the forecast period.

The bottom line: - Electric bus demand is set to keep rising, but infrastructure and financing will decide how quickly the market can catch up with policy goals.